Xi Jinping Invokes 'Thucydides Trap': What It Means for US-China Ties

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during talks with US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, May 14. Xi emphasized the need for China and the US to jointly address global challenges amidst a fluid and turbulent international situation.

"Can China and the US overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm for relations between major powers?" Xi Jinping said, as reported by Xinhua.

"Can we meet global challenges together and provide greater stability for the world? Can we build a bright future together for our bilateral relations in the interest of the well-being of the two peoples and the future of humanity? These are the questions vital to history, to the world, and to the people," Xi said.

What Is a 'Thucydides Trap'?

Citing WION, the term "Thucydides Trap" was popularized by Harvard professor Graham Allison in 2015, who borrows the name of the ancient Athenian historian Thucydides.

The ancient Greek figure wrote about the Peloponnesian War between two city-states, Athens and Sparta, writing that "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that rise endangered in Sparta, that made war inevitable."

Thus, Thucydides argued that the threat of war exists when an established country becomes anxious about the rise of a developing power, ultimately resulting in a conflict. 

Graham Allison then directed this concept in the modern context of China and the US, in his own book, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” 

To illustrate his theory, Allison cited 16 case studies where a rising nation threatened to displace an established power. His tally recorded 12 out of these 16 rivalries ending in a conflict, according to The New York Times.

One such example is the conflict between Japan and the US that eventually led to Washington entering World War II after the Pearl Harbor Attack. Allison, according to AOL, posits Japan as the rising power. 

Even so, some rivalries between rising and ruling powers did not end up leading to open conflict. Allison cited the rise of the Soviet Union, which threatened the US as an established authority but did not result in a full-blown war, but what followed instead was the decades-long, dragged-out Cold War. 

How Does the 'Thucydides Trap' Apply to US-China Relations?

Xi Jinping and high-profile Chinese diplomats have brought up the concept over the years—dating back as far as 2014—but The New York Times noted that they presented it more as a "cautionary tale than an inevitability."

In 2015, Xi said that "there is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world." 

On Thursday, he once again invoked the concept while meeting Trump in a historic summit in Beijing. Essentially, Xi appealed to Trump not to fear China's rise, but urging that the US see the two countries as "partners, not rivals."

"We should help each other succeed, prosper together, and find the right way for major countries to get along in the new era," Xi said yesterday. 

By invoking the concept, Xi also warned the US not to interfere with the matter of Taiwan, as the US announced an arms package worth US$11.1 billion for Taiwan. China considers Taiwan part of its territory, and has repeatedly stated that the island must eventually be “reunified” with mainland China.

During the Beijing summit, Xi said the US and China "could collide or even come into conflict" if the Taiwan situation is "mishandled."

Despite the tensions, Xi assured on Thursday that safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. 

Read: Xi Warns Trump Taiwan Mishandling Could Spark China-US Clash

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