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April 30, 2026 | 07:35 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The global oil prices have soared sharply and reached the highest level since 2022 amid the increasing tension in the Middle East. The Brent crude oil futures contract briefly surpassed US$120.94 per barrel on Thursday, April 30, 2026, but closed at US$113 per barrel.
Quoting Trading Economics, this increase is triggered by the intensifying conflict involving the United States and Iran, including the military directives planned by US President Donald Trump. This situation has heightened market concerns about global supply disruptions, especially after the US is reported to have maintained a naval blockade against Iran.
From a fundamental perspective, price pressure also comes from a sharp decline in oil stocks in America and a surge in exports that have exceeded 6 million barrels per day.
Domestically, the surge in global oil prices is reflected in the increase of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP). Previously, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources recorded that the March 2026 ICP reached US$102.26 per barrel.
This price is the highest in the past year and far above the 2026 State Budget assumption of US$70 per barrel.
The Director General of Oil and Gas at the ministry, Laode Sulaeman, stated that the average ICP had significantly increased by US$33.47 compared to February 2026, which was at the US$68.79 level per barrel.
According to him, the surge in prices is related to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has also disrupted global energy distribution routes, especially through the vital Strait of Hormuz, a route that approximately 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes through.
The surge in oil prices significantly pressures the state budget. The Secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Susiwijono Moegiarso, mentioned that every US$1 increase per barrel could add a burden of subsidies and energy compensation by Rp10.3 trillion.
Fahmy Radhi, an economist at Gadjah Mada University, assessed that this situation puts the government in a dilemma. If subsidized fuel prices are held, the state budget burden will increase. On the other hand, raising prices will worsen inflation risks. "Because the largest consumption of fuel is for Pertalite and solar, this becomes a difficult choice for the government," he said.
Read: Oil Price Tops US$106 Amid US-Iran Talks Uncertainty
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